Premortem template

Fill in the template

PREMORTEM

The project and the date it fails
   Name the project and a date in the future. Imagine it is that date and the project has failed.
   ______________________________________________
   ______________________________________________

Why it failed (each person writes alone first)
   List every plausible reason, one per line. Include the ones that are awkward to say.
   ______________________________________________
   ______________________________________________

The reasons that matter most
   After everyone has shared, pick the few reasons that are both likely and serious.
   ______________________________________________
   ______________________________________________

Early warning signs
   For each of those, what would you see in the first weeks if it were starting to happen?
   ______________________________________________
   ______________________________________________

Changes to the plan
   What will you do now to prevent or soften each one?
   ______________________________________________
   ______________________________________________

Owners and the next check
   Who owns each change, and when will you look at the warning signs again?
   ______________________________________________
   ______________________________________________

Get the editable version: this template as a PowerPoint file with a worked example, in the Change Toolkit. Or learn to use it on your own change in the course Leading Change with Evidence.

How to use it well

These steps are practice suggestions, not tested findings.

Do it while the plan can still change. Klein's article places the premortem in the planning phase, at the outset of a project (Klein, 2007).

Make failure the premise, not a question. Do not ask "could this fail?" Say "it is six months from now and it has failed. Why?" In the article's summary, those with reservations may speak freely at the outset, so that the project can be improved.

Write alone, then share. Give everyone a few minutes of silence to write their reasons before anyone speaks. Then the first voice in the room does not set the list.

Go round one reason at a time. Collect one reason from each person in turn until the lists are exhausted. Write them all where everyone can see them, without debate yet.

Turn the top reasons into plan changes and owners. A premortem that ends with a list and no changes has spent the team's candor without using it. Pick the few reasons that are both likely and serious, and give each one an owner, a change and a warning sign to watch.

Keep the list. Bring it to your first after action review and check which reasons came true.

What the research says

No study in the Evidence Library behind this site tests the premortem, so treat it as a practitioner technique. Its main source is an article by Gary Klein in Harvard Business Review (Klein, 2007). The article's summary describes the method: team members assume the project they are planning has just failed and then generate plausible reasons for its demise. In the summary's words, "Those with reservations may speak freely at the outset, so that the project can be improved rather than autopsied." The article frames the problem as people being reluctant to speak up about their reservations during the planning phase.

The closest tested evidence runs in the other direction in time. A meta-analysis of 46 samples (2,136 people) found that debriefs, structured reviews held after a task, were linked to about 25% better performance on average than comparison groups (d = .67) (Tannenbaum & Cerasoli, 2013, rated High in the Evidence Library after a full-text read). That supports reflecting as a team, not the premortem itself. Whether imagining failure in advance improves a plan has not been tested in the studies reviewed for this page.

How it maps to the Unfrozen Loop

1. Week 0
   Before you start

   The premortem's list of failure reasons is a baseline. Keep it, and at each review check which reasons are coming true.

2. 1
   Surface both ways

   A premortem is a structured way to surface bad news before it exists. Klein's own description is about making it safe for people with reservations to speak.

3. 2
   Make sense together, top included
4. 3
   Start it close to the work
5. 4
   Review on a rhythm, then hold the pace
6. 5
   The middle’s own weather
7. Ring
   Safe to speak, and speaking changes something

   It only works if people believe their reasons will be heard without penalty. Thank each one, and show the team what changed in the plan because of them.

Highlighted parts are the ones this idea speaks to. The mapping is my reading, not a tested finding. See the whole Loop and the evidence for each part.